There is a good chance that parts of the Carolinas will see accumulating snow Sunday Night and into Monday as an upper level disturbance moves into our area.
The first part of this system will bring rain on Sunday to the Carolinas. As the area of low pressure moves to the coast, cold air will move into the mountains, changing the rain to snow Sunday Night and Monday Morning.
The video below is the simulated radar from the High Resolution NAM computer model, and notice the rain and snow line as it moves eastward through the morning hours on Monday.
Questions still remain with how fast the cold air will move into the Carolinas, and this leads to very low confidence in the forecast.
Above 3500 feet, a mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain is expected Sunday Night before changing to all snow on Monday. In total, 3-6 inches of snow is expected above 4000 feet. This area has the best chance of seeing accumulations from this system.
Outside the mountains, accumulations are less likely. Model data has trended slower with the system, which means the colder air will not invade as quickly as thought. While a rain and snow mix is expected across the foothills and piedmont, I am not expecting any major accumulations. A wet dusting to an inch will be possible in isolated areas, but the trend today in the models have been towards lower accumulations.
The image below is the chance of receiving less than two inches of snow from the National Weather Service, and as you can see, most areas outside the mountains are under a 30% chance of receiving two inches or less of snow.
Regardless, this system will bring 1-2 inches of rain to most of the Carolinas. Model data shows the heaviest rains will occur along the coast as the low pressure strengthens and moves into New England.
This is a fluid and changing situation, so I will keep you updated with the latest chances to the forecast.