Strong southerly flow coupled with a slow moving cold front and upper level trough will allow for periods of heavy rain this weekend, especially across western and central North Carolina.
The entire weekend is expected to be a washout across western and central locations. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected on both Saturday and Sunday.
A warm front will bring a period of rain Saturday morning. Light rain is expected Saturday afternoon across western NC, but central and eastern locations may see a break in the rain Saturday afternoon and evening.
Rain returns overnight Saturday and Sunday morning, and Sunday looks to be a washout again. The front will push eastward through the day; however, global models are indicating the front may stall across eastern NC. This will allow for rain to continue through the evening hours on Sunday.
Heavy rain and isolated flooding is possible, especially across the mountains and foothills. The GFS Ensemble shows very heavy rain across western NC, with lower amounts as you move east.
My official forecast follows model guidance. The best upper level energy and forcing will be across the mountains, foothills, and piedmont, and thus the highest rain totals will be in this area. 2-3 inches of rain is expected across western NC, with 1-2 inches across much of the piedmont. Coastal areas will receive .5-1 inch of rain.
Models are indicating the upper level trough and surface cold front may stall across the southeast, allowing for periods of rain lasting into early next week. I will continue to monitor the model trends and will keep you updated.