A rapidly strengthening area of low pressure will help to bring heavy snow and sleet to eastern North Carolina on Wednesday and lasting until Thursday morning.
Rain and snow is expected to develop across eastern NC late Wednesday morning and early in the afternoon before changing over to a snow and sleet mix as the temperature begins to fall. The deformation zone is expected to remain positioned over NC through the overnight hours and is expected to pull eastward early Thursday morning.
Heavy accumulations of snow and sleet are expected from this system. There are still questions regarding the dominate precipitation type, which is always very difficult to forecast. The more sleet that mixes in, and the lower the snow accumulations will be.
Models are indicating a warm nose aloft to help change the snow to sleet, so I will keep totals the lowest right along the coast where more sleet will mix in. As we move inland, there will be a band of very heavy snow, but it is nearly impossible to forecast where this band will position itself.
The cut off for accumulating snow is expected to be along the I-95 corridor; however, this could change with the eventual track of the surface low. If the low tracks further off the coast, then the snow line would push eastward. If the low tracks closer to the coast, then the snow line would push westward.
Below is my best forecast at the moment. Please note this is a snow and sleet accumulation map, since sleet is expected to mix with this system.
I will continue to monitor the situation and will keep you updated with the latest forecast trends.