Tuesday featured well above average temperatures; however, a cold front is bringing dramatically cooler temperatures for Wednesday and this upcoming weekend. This weekend, a system is expected to move into the southeast, which means wintry weather is possible Saturday and Sunday.
First things first, a cold front is bringing an end to the above average temperatures we have enjoyed for the past few weeks. Now, temperatures are forecasted to be near or below average through the next few days. You will notice a gusty northwesterly wind tomorrow helping to funnel this cooler air in.
This weekend is when things get interesting as a system approaches from the Midwest. This system is not tracking like a classic winter storm for the Carolinas, when the low pressure organizes in the Gulf of Mexico and then moves along the East Coast. Instead, this system is tracking from west to east through the middle of the southeast, which complicates the forecast. Additionally, we are still too far out to determine the exact track of the low pressure, and computer models remain in disagreement. Overall, the forecast confidence is extremely low for this weekend.
The National Weather Service has the mountains, foothills, and parts of the piedmont in a 10-30% chance of receiving at least a quarter of an inch of snow and/or sleet from Saturday Morning through Sunday Morning.
While there is disagreement in the models regarding timing, the general consensus is the system will begin to push moisture into the Carolinas Saturday evening and night, with the moisture departing Sunday afternoon. All options are on the table, with snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain possible from the mountains to the coast, depending on the track and placement of high pressure.
The GFS computer model shows the system tracking through Georgia and South Carolina, with a wintry mix north and west of the storm track due to cold high pressure to the north. It is still too early to determine which areas will see what type of precipitation, so do not get caught up in the fine details yet.
Uncertainty remains high due to the unique track of the system, the exact position and strength of the high pressure, and the amount of moisture, It will be a few days before we are able to nail down some of these details, so I will keep you updated with the latest changes and trends in the model data.