After a cloudy and rainy week, drier weather is expected for the weekend with temperatures rising back to slightly above average.
The front and associated low pressure that has caused the unsettled weather so far this week will continue to slide out of the area. This will set up a nice weekend for a majority of the Carolinas and Virginia with partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies. The only exception will be right along the South Carolina/Georgia boarder where the front could still cause afternoon showers and storms Saturday and Sunday.
The next piece of upper level energy approaches the area from the west of Monday. The GFS and EURO both show elevated moisture levels pushing into the southeast. I expect shower and storm chances from Monday through Tuesday evening across the southeast with the slow moving upper level disturbance.
The GFS Ensemble is showing modest totals east of the mountains; however, uncertainty remains on the eventual track of the storm. This is estimated rain totals from Sunday morning through Wednesday morning. Where the upper level energy tracks is where the greatest rain totals will fall, and the models are changing each run. Regardless, there does appear to be a good chance of showers and storms through Tuesday.
Behind the front, we see an upper level ridge begin to build across the eastern United States. This will help to raise temperatures above average for this time of year. I expect temperatures to stay above average through the end of next week.
This is the GFS Ensemble temperature anomaly Tuesday through Saturday. You can see above average temperatures shaded in green from the plains to the East Coast. The upper level ridge may try to break down by the second week in October, and I will have more details on the forecast for October next week.