An area of low pressure is forecasted to track along the Gulf Coast tomorrow, bringing heavy rain to parts of the southeast.
The heaviest rain is currently forecasted to track through southern Georgia and the midlands of South Carolina. One inch of rain is expected, with higher amounts where thunderstorms develop. This is where the highest instability is forecasted. In North Carolina, winds will be coming from the northeast, bringing cool Atlantic air into the mid-Atlantic. This will help to keep the atmosphere stable, preventing any storms from developing.
(Image by Allan Huffman of Americanwx)
The 12z GFS Ensemble shows the greatest rain totals just north of the Gulf Coast. This will be a quick moving system, so I expect most of the rain to be departing the coast by Tuesday Morning. Clouds will begin to break during the day on Tuesday. By Wednesday and Thursday, abundant sunshine will be expected with temperatures above average.
Models are indicating a strong cold front will approach from the west of Friday. Most of the energy will be racing northward as the front approaches, so I am not expecting widespread storms with the front. I am only expecting scattered storms Friday for areas west of I-77 and east of I-77 for Saturday. Behind the front, you will notice a cooler and drier airmass.
The only wrinkle in the forecast could come with this cold front on Friday. The trend the past few months have been to stall fronts in the southeast, so we will need to watch the model trends to make sure the front does not stall in the southeast. Right now, the synoptics would suggest a clean frontal passage with a cool weekend into early next week.