An area of high pressure in the Atlantic Ocean will keep the heat and humidity around the southeast this week, leading to daily chances of showers and thunderstorms.
The Bermuda High is located across the Atlantic Ocean, and the area of high pressure will allow for moisture from the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico to continue moving into the southeast at the surface. Weak disturbances will help those showers and thunderstorms to develop in the afternoon each day.
Storm coverage is expected to be lower than last week; however, a disturbance next weekend may bring an increase in the shower and thunderstorm chance.
The first image is the departure of average in terms of temperatures through Thursday evening. Notice that temperatures are only expected to be slightly above average.
Rain will also be hit or miss; however, there is a chance of thunderstorms each day across the Carolinas. Right now, Monday and Tuesday appears to be the most active days. Both days will feature a 50-70% chance of showers and storms. We may see a break in the showers and storms on Thursday and Friday, with only a 20-30% chance of rain.
The GFS Ensemble shows the total precipitation through Friday morning. Some areas may receive higher amounts of rain where thunderstorms develop, and other areas will see lower amounts of rain where the thunderstorms miss.
Notice in the heavy rain totals across Florida. Models are indicating another area of low pressure may move into the southeast this weekend. If this occurs, heavy rain is possible for Memorial Day weekend.
There are questions regarding the track of the low pressure, and how much moisture will move northward next weekend. I will continue to monitor the system and will keep you updated.