What is the forecast for temperatures and precipitation for October in the southeast? Here is my monthly forecast.
Models are indicating a positive NAO quickly moving negative as we enter October. This will help to send a powerful cold front to our area early next week. So, the start will be warm with a cold push for the first full week of October. The PNA is also trending towards a positive state, which helps to push cooler air from Canada into the eastern United States.
Overall, I am expecting average temperatures for a large part of the southeast. I expect zonal flow for most of the month with periodic troughs swinging through the southeast.
The EURO and GFS has kept the large area of low pressure in Alaska for the next ten days, which will help to re-enforce the west coast ridge. If this trend continues through the month, then we are looking at a cooler than average October here in the southeast. Some of the models show the chance for a cooler than average October, so I would not be shocked if Atlanta, Charlotte, Asheville, and Richmond saw a cooler than average October.
October is one of the drier months in the southeast. I expect below average precipitation for a majority of the southeast.
The reasons for the dry conditions are zonal flow (no strong upper level lows moving into the area) and lack of low pressures developing in the Gulf of Mexico. I only expect a couple of cold fronts to bring the chance of showers and storms to the area. Most of the fronts that past should be relatively dry and will not produce widespread showers and storms.