An area of low pressure in the northwest Caribbean is slowing becoming better organized and may develop into a Tropical Depression soon.
The system is unorganized as of Saturday evening; however, most computer models are showing this system becoming a tropical storm early next week. The strongest winds remain well displaced from the center due to upper level wind shear. The system is expected to battle upper level wind shear through the foreseeable future, which is expected to limit development.
The current National Hurricane Center track brings the system northward into the Gulf of Mexico, and then the system is expected to be picked up by an upper level trough coming through the center of the country. The system is expected to make landfall on Wednesday as a tropical storm before racing northward across the eastern seaboard.
Overall model guidance is very well clustered bringing the system northward. Changes in the track is possible, especially since the system is so disorganized and very weak at the moment.
For us in the Carolinas, heavy rain will be possible depending on the exact track of Tropical Cyclone 14. I am continuing to monitor the situation and will keep you updated.