A potential tropical system coupled with a stream of copious moisture rising from the tropics will keep shower and thunderstorm chances high through your Memorial Day weekend.
It will not rain all the time each day; however, there will be daily showers and storms through Memorial Day from the mountains to the coast. Some days will feature a higher chance of showers and storms, while other days will feature a lower chance of rain.
The Bermuda High is located to our east, and an upper level trough is located to our west. Low level winds are coming from the south, which is allowing moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic to surge into the southeast United States.
On top of all this, an area of low pressure located just east of the Yucatan Peninsula is drifting northward into the Gulf of Mexico. The overall environment is expected to become less hostile for development which may allow the low pressure to strengthen into a potential tropical cyclone this weekend.
The National Weather Service, as of Thursday evening, gives this system a 70% chance of developing into a potential tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours and a 90% chance of developing into a potential tropical cyclone within the next five days.
Right now, the models bring this system northward into the Gulf of Mexico. The GFS computer model brings the low pressure into Louisiana on Monday. Even with the low well to our south and west, there will be plenty of moisture directly and indirectly tied to the potential system surging northward.
Over the next five days, the GFS Ensemble shows just how much rain is expected across the southeast United States. Notice that western locations of the state are expected to see the greatest rain totals due to strong upslope flow.
Through Tuesday Evening, much of western NC could see 2-4 inches of rain, with higher amounts possible where the strongest storms develop. Most of the piedmont and coastal areas are expected to see 1-2 inches of rain, with higher amounts possible.
The images below are from the National Weather Service, and it shows the chance of precipitation over the next four days.
If you have plans over the Memorial Day weekend, please monitor the changing weather conditions. While it will not rain all the time, there will be a chance of showers and storms each day.
I am continuing to track the system in the Gulf of Mexico and the surge of moisture that is coming northward. I will keep you updated with the latest changes to the forecast on Facebook and here on www.wxjordan.com.