An upper level ridge that has been keeping any fronts at bay is finally breaking down, which means rain chances are going to increase this week.
Not only will above average temperatures remain through the end of the week, but you will notice a sharp increase in the humidity. Winds will turn and come from the southwest, allowing for moisture from the Gulf of Mexico to come into the Carolinas.
Thunderstorm chances begin to rise on Monday across the western part of the state. Expect a 30-40% chance of showers and storms in the mountains and foothills, with lower chances across the piedmont and coastal areas.
Tuesday’s Weather Map
On Tuesday, notice high pressure moving to our northeast and a cold front finally making progress across the center of the country. Expect better chances of pop up showers and storms on your Tuesday across the Carolinas.
By Wednesday, moisture from Michael is expected to be moving into the southeast as the upper level trough and cold front moves into the Mississippi River Valley. Therefore, Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday have the best chance of rain for the entire state.
The current forecast brings the cold front into the mountains on Thursday Morning, with Tropical Storm Michael moving into South Carolina. This would likely bring heavy rains from the mountains to the coastal plain.
The forecast will change depending on the eventual track of the Tropical Storm Michael. Regardless, most areas are expected to receive 1-3 inches of rain this week from the cold front and Tropical Storm Michael. The image below is from the Weather Prediction Center.
Flash flooding may become an issue where thunderstorms train over the same areas. Tropical Storm force winds are also possible depending on the final track of Michael.