Slow Moving Upper Level Disturbance Brings Chance Of Flooding Rain

A slow moving upper level disturbance brings the chance of more flooding rains to parts of western North Carolina.

Moisture is increasing Sunday afternoon across the Carolinas under strong southerly winds. Rain will begin in the mountains this evening, and then will begin to move eastward and will increase in intensity through the day. Heavy rain is likely across the mountains and foothills of NC through Tuesday morning.

During your morning commute, rain will be concentrated across western and central NC. The image below is the NAM computer model at 8:00 a.m. Monday Morning.

The evening commute will also feature light to moderate rain will pockets of heavy rain. The image below is the future radar as you head home from work at 5:00 p.m.

Rain will continue through the overnight hours Monday and into Tuesday. The rain on Tuesday is not expected to be as heavy as on Monday; however, scattered showers are expected to continue.

Models are indicating most areas will see 1-2 inches of rain. Higher amounts are expected across the mountains and western piedmont, where most areas will see 2-4 inches of rain. Higher amounts are expected along the Blue Ridge Escarpment, where 4-6 inches of rain is likely.

The Blue Ridge Escarpment will see the highest rain totals due to the a strong southeasterly wind, which will bring moisture northward and it will run into the mountains. This results in a strong upslope flow, which leads to very intense bands of rain through Tuesday afternoon.

Over the next 72 hours, notice how much rain is expected to fall. The first image is from the NAM computer model. The second image is the GFS Ensemble computer model.

NAM Computer Model

GFS Ensemble Computer Model

With flooding possible, the National Weather Service has issued a flood watch (areas shaded in green) for much of western NC through Tuesday Morning.

The unsettled pattern looks to remain through the middle of the week; however, rain chances will decrease on Wednesday and Thursday.