Tropical Storm Michael has formed in the northern Caribbean and is moving northward towards the Gulf of Mexico slowly.
Michael is becoming more organized despite being in a hostile environment with strong upper level wind shear. Michael is also moving into water that is extremely warm, which is expected to strengthen the storm into a hurricane this week.
The official National Hurricane Center track has moved slightly eastward and is slightly slower due to model consensus shifting eastward. The ECMWF model is substantially slower than other computer models; however, most models bring the system on shore Wednesday.
Michael is expected to be picked up by an upper level trough moving in from the west which will quickly move the storm northward. For us in the Carolinas, showers and storms associate with Michael and the upper level trough will be possible. Heavy rain and wind may become an issue, depending on the final track of Michael.
I will continue to keep you updated with the latest trends in the models.