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Wintry Weather, Flooding Rains, Severe Weather Expected on Thursday Across the Carolinas

Depending on where you live in North Carolina, you may experience wintry weather, flooding rains, and/or severe weather on Thursday as a dynamic system moves into the area.

Aloft, an upper level disturbance has slowed to a standstill and is now turning into a very strong upper level low pressure. This system is located over the middle of the country and will be pushing eastward Wednesday evening through Thursday.

This storm system is expected to bring wintry weather and flooding rains to the mountains and foothills. In the piedmont, flooding rains are expected, and coastal areas can expected potential flooding and severe thunderstorms.

The future radar from Wednesday afternoon into Friday morning shows the progression of the system.

Tropical Tidbits – 3km NAM Computer Model Simulated Radar (18z Tuesday 11/13/2018)

The wintry weather threat will be in the mountains and adjacent foothills. An area of high pressure located to our north will push cold air down the east side of the mountains. Temperatures Thursday morning will be below freezing, which is expected to allow freezing rain and sleet during the morning hours. The threat stretches along I-40 and northward towards the NC/VA border.

The good news is the temperature should rise above freezing by the afternoon hours for nearly everyone; however, ice may accumulate, especially on those elevated surfaces. The National Weather Service in Greenville Spartanburg show the amount of ice that is expected to accumulate as of Thursday afternoon.

NWS GSP Total Ice Accumulation

Winter Storm Watches have also been issued for the possibility of accumulating ice from this system.

Watches / Warnings / Advisories as of Tuesday Evening

Flooding is also possible with the heavy rain that is expected. 1-3 inches of rain is likely, with some areas receiving more rain in the mountains and foothills. The National Weather Service shows many areas receiving another 1-2 inches on top of the rain we have already seen.

As the system approaches the coastline, severe thunderstorms are likely. There will be warm air coming into the system in the coastal plain, and the cold air coming behind the front will help to destabilize the atmosphere. The greatest threat will be Thursday afternoon and night with damaging winds and isolated tornadoes possible.

Severe Weather Threat Thursday

The good news is once the system pushes to our east, drier air will move into the Carolinas and a nice weekend is on tap, with temperatures remaining below average for this time of year.

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